2026-11-06 –, Workshop 2
Prediction markets have proved remarkably effective at forecasting sports and world events, but their greatest value will be improving decisions.
In this talk, we’ll explore decision markets: prediction markets used to make choices. We’ll explore futarchy to optimise metrics, opportunity markets to filter through options, risk pricing to evaluate threats such as protocol failures, and distilled human judgement to scale human evaluation.
This talk will map the emerging design space of decision markets: prediction markets built not just to forecast events, but to improve decisions.
It will cover:
- Asset futarchy, which measures the expected price impact of a decision.
- Metric futarchy, which forecasts KPIs conditional on choices.
- Opportunity markets, which help filter large decision spaces.
- Risk pricing, which makes long-term tail risks easier to evaluate.
- Distilled human judgement, which scales expert evaluation by resolving only a subset of items while markets price the rest.
The key takeaway is that Polymarket and Kalshi are only the beginning: I expect prediction markets to become a fundamental economic primitive for governance, funding, risk assessment, and prioritisation. The talk synthesises system design and implementation work from Seer, Kleros, Butter, MetaDAO, futarchy.fi, Robin Hanson, Vitalik Buterin, and Dave White.
Clément is a computer scientist and founder of Kleros, a decentralized arbitration protocol for smart contracts. His work spans mechanism design, game theory, smart contract security, and decentralized coordination. Beyond Kleros, he has worked on Sybil-resistant systems like Proof of Humanity and on prediction and decision markets through Seer. He is interested in markets for governance, funding, risk, and collective decision-making. Outside work, Clément plays competitive Magic: The Gathering.
Devansh has worked as an investigative reporter and consultant to community media outlets in India, before entering Ethereum in 2021 to work on blockchain based impact certificates. He was selected for the 2023 Next Billion Fellowship by Ethereum Foundation and worked there from 2025-26. Devansh has completed a dual Master’s Degree in International Affairs and Investigative Journalism at Columbia University and is now focusing on prediction markets as information finance at Seer.